338: Polling vs. Modeling

With the federal election underway, some clarification is needed around 338Canada. To voters in Saanich-Gulf Islands — and anywhere — 338 specializes in electoral modeling — using existing polling data to make projections. While it is very insightful, it is not polling. They look at the national picture, then they use an algorithm to project and imagine, it’s not a polling company.

We do real polling. We hire real pollsters. The Green Party of Canada commissioned Oraclepoll to conduct a live telephone survey with a randomized sample of N=600 voting-age residents in Saanich—Gulf Islands, using both cellular and landline numbers. Interviews were conducted from March 21-25, 2025. The margin of error for the N=600 sample is +/- 4.0%.

At this point, with a statistically significant sample of the population in this riding, that I’m at 41%.

The Conservative is second. If you want the best possible member of Parliament who promises to work extremely hard for you, vote Green. Don’t be scared thinking that it’s a four-way race and it’s too close, Ignore 338. Because it’s not a poll. #votemay